ZD statement: Ration the power supply in china

2021-09-24

ZD statement:Ration the power supply in china
(Here are some reasons for ration the power supply)

News

Back Ground :

China will seize time to formulate an action plan for peaking carbon dioxide emissionsbefore 2030. The country will support areas with favorable conditions to peak the emissions ahead of the schedule, according to the statement released after the annual Central Economic Work Conference.

In meeting the climate challenge, no one can be aloof and unilateralism will get us nowhere. Only by upholding multilateralism, unity 4 and cooperation can we deliver shared benefits and win-win for all nations. China welcomes all countries’ support for the Paris Agreement and their greater contribution to tackling climate change.

Present Xi Jinping's speech at the Climate Ambition Summit, 12 December 2020

Detail Reasons

First, from a macro point of view, we need to reduce the use of fossil energy since the central government has proposed carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

The traditional fossil fuels are coal, natural gas and oil. What is the cleanest and most efficient alternative to these? Is electricity. Therefore, in many traditional industries (most of which use boilers and so on), coal and gas will be transformed into electricity, Resulting in a sharp increase in demand for electricity
From the perspective of the epidemic, China control it best in the world at present, so the manufacturing industry is also the best recovery. Meanwhile, due to the decline of overseas productivity, many orders have been moved to China, which will bring about higher output and also higher electricity demand.
At present, due to the national regulation of the coal industry, coal prices rise and thermal power generation costs rise. Meanwhile, under the situation of carbon peak, the dual control situation of national energy consumption is not optimistic, and thermal power generation is unlikely to generate power at full load.

Second, look at the specific situation.
At present, the power generation capacity cannot keep up with the growth momentum of the whole society, especially the industrial power consumption, which is expected to be difficult to solve in the short term. In the long run, in the future, although new generating units have been under construction for a period of time, electricity in most areas will start to be scarce. After all, the construction of new energy generating units (wind power, hydropower, nuclear energy, etc.) will take a long time to play a role. Another point is that the current national coal prices are relatively high, thermal power costs, resulting in power shortages.

Third: from the situation of this year.

The country under the condition of the surge in electricity consumption, energy consumption of the double control situation is very serious, guangzhou, shenzhen, zhuhai, shantou, heyuan, meizhou, dongguan, zhongshan, jiangmen, zhanjiang, zhaoqing, qingyuan, chaozhou, jieyang, yunfu 15 cities in the first half of the energy intensity does not send a rose, the energy consumption of the double control target situation is extremely serious, The completion of the dual control index of energy consumption is directly related to the assessment of local governments, which belongs to the one-vote veto system. Therefore, local governments will also take power rationing measures to reduce energy consumption.

fourth: the whole world's demand is made in China.
It's not that the demand is increasing, but that foreign countries can't start production. After this outbreak, China will have serious overcapacity.

fifth: As we know, US government is keeping to printing us dollars.

China government cannot follow its step to printing more RMB for responding or it will cause inflation crisis.
However, although many factories keep exporting so many goods ,but actually without corresponding benefit for factories and for the country .All material been increased , all kinds of energy are using more and more , or being waste .
It seems that China government is paying the bill for us government.
China government do not want to keep it like that.

Finally, the government is deliberately pulling the strings, not expanding capacity, not piling up too much inventory. And also can be a good attitude for thecarbon neutral to the world.

Consequence

1: Production time have been extended
2: Unit price will be increased. Less electric power, less products in market.
However, the demand is huge. So who offerthe highest price who obtained.

Suggestion

To prepare stock as more as possible, making 2022 orders to 2021 year.

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